Iran to hold war games to protect nuclear facilities

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By Fredrik Dahl and Hashem Kalantari

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's military said it will begin large-scale air defense drills on Sunday, and a cleric in the Revolutionary Guards warned that the Islamic Republic would fire missiles at "the heart of Tel Aviv" if attacked.

The war games, due to last five days, are intended to help protect Iran's nuclear facilities, Iranian media reported, citing Brigadier General Ahmad Mighani.

The statements came a day after senior officials from six world powers said they were disappointed Iran had not accepted proposals intended to delay its potential to make nuclear weapons, and urged Tehran to reconsider.

The United States, Russia, China, Germany, Britain and France met after U.S. President Barack Obama warned there could be a package of sanctions against Iran within weeks.

The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the row over Iranian nuclear work that the West suspects is aimed at making bombs.

Iran, which says its nuclear program is solely to generate electricity, has threatened to hit back at Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf if it is attacked.

"If the enemy should want to test its bad luck in Iran, before the dust from its missiles settles in this country, Iran's ballistic missiles would land in the heart of Tel Aviv," said cleric Mojtaba Zolnour, IRNA news agency reported.

Zalnour is a deputy of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's representative in the Revolutionary Guards, who will be staging the defense drills together with the regular armed forces.

"This week's air defense maneuvers will be held with the intention of protecting the country's nuclear facilities," Mighani said, Fars News Agency reported. He is the head of the armed forces' air defense headquarters.

"ZIONISTS' PRESSURE"

Iran often holds defense exercises and announces advances in military equipment in order to show its readiness to counter any threats over its disputed nuclear program.

IRNA, Iran's official news agency, said the maneuvers would take place in western Iran and that they would be "huge."

Mighani also suggested Iran could itself produce an advanced missile defense system which Russia has so far failed to deliver to the Islamic state and which Washington and Israel do not want Tehran to have.

Iran believes Russia's delay in supplying high-grade S-300 missiles is due to pressure by Israel, not technical problems as cited by Moscow, Mighani said.

Moscow, which is under Western pressure to distance itself from Iran over the nuclear dispute, has not followed through on proposals to ship the missiles to the Middle East country. Continued...

Vietnam's Chim Sao construction gains momentum

LONDON -- Premier Oil has issued the main construction contracts for the Chim Sáo development offshore southern Vietnam. EOCP was contracted to convert the Lewek Emas into an FPSO vessel with production capability of 50,000 boe/d and oil storage capacity of 680,000 bbl.

PTSC won the EPCI contract for engineering, construction and installation of the wellhead platform, infield flowlines and gas export pipeline. Fabrication of the platform under interim arrangements was 64% complete by end-October, with offshore installation scheduled for summer 2010.

Premier expects the contract for the Chim Sáo drilling rig to be awarded this month, with development drilling due to start in mid-2010. First production from the field is slated for July 2011.

Following the company’s Cá Rong Do discovery on Block 07/03 in June and subsequent acquisition of 3D seismic data over the eastern side of the block, a second well is due to spud imminently. This will target the Cá Rong Vang prospect with potential reserves estimated at 30-100 MMboe. The location is around 6 km (3.7 mi) northwest of Cá Rong Do. Further drilling is likely in mid-2010.

As for Premier’s interests offshore Indonesia, production from the Anoa field has risen by 5% in recent months, helped by strong gas demand from Sembgas in Singapore. Premier estimates annual production from Anoa this year at 8,600 boe/d.

However, there has been a temporary loss of production on the Kakap field due to the replacement of the FPSO, which is due to be completed before end-November. Estimated average production for the year from Kakap is 2,400 boe/d, down from 3,800 boe/d in 2008.

Premier reports good progress on the Gajah Baru project, the first of three fields under development to supply additional gas to Singapore and Batam under new Gas Sales Agreements (GSAs) signed in 2008.

The EPCI program, awarded in May, is now 30% complete and remains on schedule. Fabrication has started in Batam both on the central process facility at the PT SMOE yard and on the wellhead platform at the sub-contractor Nippon Steel’s yard.

Tendering for the jackup to drill the initial five wells, and an infill program on Anoa, is due to start shortly, while a tender is under way for the additional facilities required at the onshore reception facility in Singapore. Development drilling should begin next October, following installation of the wellhead platform, leading to first gas by October 2011.

Elsewhere off Indonesia, Premier says an 850-sq km 3D seismic survey was shot over the Tuna Block in September and processing should be completed early in January. Two wells are planned for later in 2010.
11/19/2009

Humor: You can see it from space!

Source: Steve Sack, Comics.com, November 19, 2009.

Ukraine Hopes to Sign Deal With Russia in Nuclear Power Sector Soon - Tymoshenko

(Source: Daily News Bulletin; Moscow - English)YALTA. Nov 20 (Interfax) - Russia and Ukraine will sign a strategic contract within the next few months that will address cooperation in the nuclear power sector during the period up to 2020, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said.

"It [the contract] is ready for signing. I believe that we will be able to complete work on this important document within the next few months, which will give us stability for the coming years," Tymoshenko said at a session of the two countries' committee for business cooperation.

A similar contract Russia and Ukraine have today expires in 2011, she said.

Ukraine expects to receive an opportunity to work together with the International Uranium Enrichment Center in Russia's Angarsk, and it also wants Russia to help build two power generating units at the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant and to provide them with raw materials, Tymoshenko said.

Turkey sticks to nuclear power plan

ANKARA — Turkey is determined to build a nuclear power plant and will launch a new project to replace a failed tender, Energy Minister Taner Yildiz was quoted as saying Saturday.

"The fact that the tender was scrapped does not mean that the process is scrapped. Our determination on nuclear power plants is persisting," Yildiz said in Kizilcahamam town, near Ankara, Anatolia news agency reported.

Energy authorities Friday cancelled a 2008 tender won by a Russian-led consortium to build Turkey's first nuclear power plant after a top administrative court suspended parts of the regulation governing the process.

Yildiz said officials were working on a new model of realising the project through shorter procedures, adding that the involvement of the public sector might be also considered.

A consortium led by Atomstroyexport, Russia's state nuclear giant, was the only bidder in the scrapped tender to build four nuclear reactors with a total capacity of 4,800-megawatts at the Mediterranean town of Akkuyu.

The tender had been under fire since it emerged that the consortium was the sole bidder and offered above-market prices for supplying electricity to the Turkish grid.

The auction was held in September 2008, amid global financial turbulence, with Ankara rejecting requests by interested companies for a postponement.

Turkey plans to build three nuclear power plants in hopes of preventing a possible energy shortage and reducing dependence on foreign supplies but the project is fiercely opposed by environmentalists.

Ankara abandoned an earlier plan to build a nuclear plant at Akkuyu in 2000 amid a severe financial crisis and protests from environmentalists in Turkey, Greece and Cyprus.

Critics say Akkuyu is close to a seismic fault line, pointing at a powerful earthquake that killed more than 140 people in the neighbouring province of Adana in 1998.

China has no plan to cut oil imports from Iran

China says it has no plan to decrease its oil imports from Iran -- the world's fifth largest crude exporter.

Wang Tianpu, president of top refiner Sinopec Corp, says China's oil imports from Iran will remain at the current level of around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The comment came as China announced that it will increase its oil imports from Saudi Arabia by about 12 percent from this year to top one million barrels a day.

"We have to secure other supplies as the OPEC cuts may affect grades that our plants really need," Reuters quoted a Sinopec trader as saying.

Iran is the No.3 oil supplier of China, the world's No.2 oil user.

Chinese oil companies are also set to secure next year's supplies with other leading exporters in the Middle East and Africa.

Thailand's Lanna Resources to up coal production

Coal distributor Lanna Resources has set a five-year, US$7.5-million (Bt249 million) plan to increase annual production from its existing mines to 6 million tonnes.

The plan will be implemented next year.

Business-development director Sihasak Arirachakaran said the increased production would come from its Singlurus Pratama (SGP) and Lanna Harita Indonesia (LHI) mining subsidiaries in that country.

SGP, which Lanna just acquired in the third quarter, is not yet producing at full capacity, while LHI is producing at full capacity of 2 million tonnes annually.

Lanna's coal price will remain at $50 a tonne next year, the same as this year, due to fixed advance contracts. However, the company predicts the global coal price will rise next year.

The company will restart ethanol production by the end of this year once it secures enough molasses, the main raw material.

However, Lanna has projected a negative outlook for the overall ethanol industry next year, due to the high cost of molasses, which stems from a shortage, Sihasak said. The company has had no molasses stock since September.

The new production capacity of the company's second ethanol plant has not yet increased the plant's revenue contribution, and this will reduce the margin next year, from Bt5 to Bt7 a litre this year.

Sihasak said revenue and net profit would "skyrocket" in 2011 on the increased coal and ethanol production.

He said the company would enjoy an improved net profit next year, in the same proportion as this year, due mainly to annual coal production increasing from 2 million tonnes to 3.5 million.

Lanna achieved revenue of Bt7.5 billion last year for a net profit of Bt471 million. In the first nine months of this year, revenue was Bt3.9 billion for a net profit of Bt557 million.

Ethnic Chinese nabbed for stealing secrets, espionage

BEIJING (Reuters) - The United States is seeking the release of Chinese-born, American geologist Xue Feng, who was detained two years ago on state secrets charges after negotiating the purchase of an oil industry database.

The following is a chronology of cases involving ethnic Chinese executives of foreign companies and Chinese-born, overseas-based academics, reporters and dissidents charged with stealing state secrets, espionage or other crimes.

March 1996 - An official of the state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corp was detained for leaking state secrets to a Chinese employee of Royal Dutch Shell who was released after spending a year largely incommunicado. Shell was in talks with CNOOC then to build an oil refinery.

October 1996 - China freed a Chinese employee of Swiss-owned

SBC Warburg, detained for one month on suspicion of leaking state

secrets, apparently for having helped prepare materials for company clients on the trend of China's currency, the yuan.

November 1999 - Australian businessman James Peng, held in a Chinese prison for six years, was released on parole and deported. He had been abducted from a hotel in Macau in October 1993, spirited across the border to China and sentenced in 1996 to 18 years in jail on bribery charges.

January 2000 - Song Yongyi, a Pennsylvania-based scholar and expert on China's chaotic 1966-76 Cultural Revolution, was released after five months in a Chinese prison on charges of gathering state secrets. He has since become a U.S. citizen.

July 2001 - Li Shaomin, a Hong Kong-based U.S. professor, was convicted of spying for Taiwan, but spared a sentence and released after spending five months in custody. The conviction came one day after Beijing won its bid to host the 2008 Olympics. Continued...

China refiners agree 12 pct rise in 2010 Saudi imports

BEIJING/SINGAPORE, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Chinese oil firms have agreed to buy a total of about 1.04 million barrels per day of crude from Saudi Arabia under a term pact finalised for 2010, roughly 12 percent above the 2009 contract level, trading sources told Reuters.

The pace of growth quickens from a rate of under 10 percent seen this year over 2008, as demand in the world's No.2 oil consumer looks poised to recover more on the back of China's solid economic expansion.

The 2010 amount includes about 200,000 barrels per day of supplies to Fujian Refining & PetroChemical Co Ltd (FREP), which is 25 percent owned by state-run Saudi Aramco.

S. Korea to buy coal from China for US$85-90/t in 2010

Nov. 19 MetalBiz--Head of one S. Korea power company on November 18 unveiled that S. Korea’s power companies may purchase coal from China at the contract price of more than U.S.$85-90 per ton in 2010.

The management said that this year power company bought coal with 6,080 kilo calories per kilogram at the price of U.S.$82 per ton.

He added that if in March of 2010, that is, before the annual contract price talks, other Asian countries’ freight and coal price continues rising, at that moment, China only increases the price.

He also claimed that it is expected that China’s purchase volume in 2010 will be same as the 2009 level, and therefore China’s price is still higher than the price of Australia and Indonesia.

He stated that S. Korea’s coal import contract price is usually line with Japanese importers’ price.

According to China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD)’s data, till November 16, Datong’s superior-quality mixed coal with 5,800 kilo calories per kilogram, is quoted by Qinhuangdao at the spot benchmark price of 680-700 yuan per ton, increasing by 17% than that in the beginning of 2009. The warming-up demand in power and industry pushes up coal price.

China Coal-Spot prices up, plant stocks sufficent

SHANGHAI, Nov 19 - Spot coal prices in Qinhuangdao, China's top coal shipping port, continued climbing this week, as a cold spell aroused concerns over coal supply, but so far most power plants are sufficiently stocked, industry officials and analysts said on Thursday.

Early and heavy snow in northern and central China, including the top coal producing province Shanxi, in the last 10 days disrupted road transportation and slowed the flow of coal, prompting fears of a repeat of severe coal and power shortages in central China in early 2008.

"All 541 power plants connected to the State Grid have reasonable coal stock levels. None has coal stocks lower than alarming levels," said an official of the State Grid, adding that "alarming levels" vary from 3 to 15 days at different plants, depending on their locations and distance from the coal source.

"The influence from the cold spell is almost over," he said.

Average coal stocks at power plants connected to major grids, were enough for 14 days of use, an official with the China Electricity Council said.

But in the eastern province of Anhui, some power plants' coal stocks dropped to a dangerous level just enough for 2 days of use earlier this week, the Anhui Economy and Technology Commission said on its website (www.ahec.gov.cn).

Coal used in Anhui, however, mainly comes from its own coal mines.

QINHUANGDAO PRICES UP, STOCKS DOWN

Coal stockpiles in Qinhuangdao fell nearly 11 percent from a week earlier to 7.6 million tonnes, still higher than the usual levels of 5 to 6 million tonnes, as outflow of coal quickened after foggy and windy weather eased, analysts said.

"The foggy weather around northern ports did cause coal stocks in eastern China's power plants to fall, but since they had just stocked up sufficient coal for the winter, the impact wasn't serious," said the State Grid official.

"And now since the fog has lifted, their coal stocks are being replenished as shipping recovered."

Coal with calorific value of 5,800 kcal/kg (NAR) rose 1 percent from a week earlier to 680 to 700 yuan ($99.6 to $102.5) a tonne, nearly one-year high, according to the Qinhuangdao Seaborne Coal Market(www.cqcoal.com).

Coal with calorific value of 5,500 kcal/kg was quoted in the range of 640 to 660 yuan a tonne, up nearly 2 percent from a week earlier, the website also said.

"Coal prices are likely to be stable in the near term, as downstream stockpiles are decent," said Lu Ping, ananalyst at China Merchants Securities. ($1=6.826 Yuan)

Indonesia coal loading and port details

 (For a related story click on [ID:nJAK435919])

 Nov 19 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's biggest thermal exporter of coal, expects to increase production to 230 million tonnes this year, with about 160 million tonnes exported.

 Here are details on some key ports and loading facilities:

 COAL LOADING/ANCHORAGE:

 -----------------------

  Port                           user           Handling

                                                capacity

                                               (tonnes/day)

 ---------------------------------------------------------

 EAST KALIMANTAN

 1. Balikpapan Coal terminal     common user   30,000-40,000

 2. Bontang Coal terminal        Indominco     40,000

 3. Tanah Merah Coal terminal    Kideco        40,000

 4. Tanjung Bara coal terminal   KPC           70,000-80,000

 5. Teluk Adang                  Kideco         8,000-12,000

 6. Teluk Apar                   Various        8,000-10,000

 7. Muara Berau/Muara Jawa       Various        8,000-10,000

 8. Muara Pantai                 Berau Coal    12,000-20,000

 9. Tarakan                      Mandiri IP     8,000-10,000

 SOUTH KALIMANTAN

 1. North Pulau Laut             Arutmin       35,000-40,000

 2. South Pulau Laut             common user   35,000-40,000

 3. Jorong  anchorage          Jorong Barutama  8,000-12,000

 4. Sebuku  anchorage          Bahari Cakrawala 8,000-12,000

 5. Muara Satui  anchorage     Arutmin, various 8,000-12,000

 6. Taboneo  anchorage         Adaro, various   8,000-20,000

 7. Tanjung Petang anchorage   Arutmin,various  8,000-12,000

 SUMATRA

 1. Kertapati Jetty            Bukit Asam        5,000-6,000

 2. Muarasabak (anchorage)     Various           6,000-7,000

 3. Pulau Baai                 Various           6,000-7,000

 5. Tarahan Coal Terminal      Bukit Asam      25,000-30,000

 6. Teluk Bayur port           Bukit Asam,       8,000

 COAL DISCHARGE PORTS IN JAVA:

 Port                         User               Capacity (tonnes/day) ------------------------------------------------------------

 1. Cigading, W. Java     Krakatau Steel         10,000

                          Indocement

 2. Ciwandan, W. Java     Common user             6,000

 3. Suralaya, W. Java     PLN                   20,000-25,000

 4. Cirebon, W. Java      Common User             6,000

 5. Cilacap C. Java       Pelindo III             6,000

 6. Tanjung Jati B        PLN                    35,000

 7. Paiton PEC, E.Java    Paiton Energy Co.     10,000-12,000

 8. Paiton PLN, E. Java   PLN                   10,000-12,000

 9. Paiton Jawa Power     Jawa Power            40,000-45,000

 10. Gresik, E.Java       Semen Gresik            3,500

 TRANSHIPMENT

 -------------------

 Besides coal loading ports, coal producers use transshipment facilities in open seas to load coal from barges to bulk carriers.

 - PT Adaro Indonesia has 4 floating transshipment systems that can load vessels up to 25,000 tonnes per day.

 - PT Berau Coal has a transshipment facility at Muara Pantai in the Sulawesi sea. It uses ship cranes to load coal directly from barges to ships with a loading rate of 12,000 tonnes per day. It also uses a Semi Submersible Trans-shipper to transfer coal to ships from barges by a system of conveyors with a loading rate of 15,000-18,000 tonnes per day.

 - PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN.JK) operates the Kalimantan Floating Transfer Station to load coal onto Cape-size vessels. It has the capacity to load coal to such vessels at a rate of 4,000 tonnes per hour. The firm also owns the Balikpapan Coal Terminal.

 Sources: Indonesia Coal Producers Association, Indonesia Coal Book 2008/2009, PT Adaro Energy (ADRO.JK) website www.adaro.com, Berau Coal website www.beraucoal.co.id, Bayan Resources website www.bayan.com.sg  (Compiled by Fitri Wulandari; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

Hyperion Power Generation Reactor Design

Here are 18 pages of slides, 8 pages on the Hyperion Power Generation UraniumHydrideNitride Reactor (H/TIdaho Samizdat)

Fuel will be enriched to between 15-19.6% because this small reactor needs more highly enriched fuel to get power levels to point of economic value. Fuel is a uranium nitride alloy. No fuel has been fabricated or tested so far. A system engineer at Hyperion said in an interview INL’s ATR is an option for testing fuel.

Here are 18 pages of slides, 8 pages on the Hyperion Power Generation UraniumHydrideNitride Reactor (H/TIdaho Samizdat)

Hyperion Power Generation Press Release
It has been changed from uranium hydride to uranium nitride-fueled, lead bismuth-cooled, fast reactor for their 'launch' design.

The design that Hyperion Power intends to have licensed and manufactured first will include all of the company's original design criteria, but is expected to take less time for regulators to review and certify than the initial concept created by Dr. Otis "Pete" Peterson during his tenure at Los Alamos National Laboratory. "We have every intention of producing Dr. Peterson's uranium hydride-fueled reactor; it is an important breakthrough technology for the nuclear power industry," noted Deal. "However, in our research of the global market for small, modular nuclear power reactors – aka SMRs – we have found a great need for the technology. Our clients do not want to wait for regulatory systems around the globe, to learn about and be able to approve a uranium hydride system. A true SMR design, that delivers a safe, simple and small source of clean, emission-free, robust and reliable power is needed today – not years from now. As we construct and deploy this launch design, we will continue to work towards licensing Dr. Peterson's design."

Kept quiet until today, this initial design for the company's small, modular, nuclear power reactor (SMR) is the first of several that have been under co-development with staff from Los Alamos National Laboratory. Hyperion Power's market goals include the distribution of at least 4,000 of its transportable, sealed, self-contained, simple-to-operate fission-generated power units

The Design
Overnight costs are estimated by the firm to be $2,000 - $3,000 per KW capacity. The market goal is to generate electricity for < ten US cents per kWh anywhere in the world.

The reactor is intended to meet requirements for dedicated power by hospitals, factories, foundries, government centers, water treatment, or irrigation and desalinization. Resource intensive uses at remote sites include mining and oil production & refining. Military facilities that cannot compromise tactical readiness relative to having enough electricity may find the small footprint of the reactor and ease of transport to be of interest.

China's Oil Demand Remains Strong With 10% On-Year Jump in October

HONG KONG, Nov. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Platts -- China's apparent petroleum demand in October jumped 10.2% from a year ago as the world's second largest oil consumer ramped up crude processing rates, even as Beijing released a bunch of positive economic data for the month.

Chinese oil demand reached an estimated 33.886 million metric tons (mt) last month compared with 30.75 million metric tons in October 2008, a Platts analysis of official data showed November 19.

October was the second consecutive month Chinese oil demand posted double-digit growth year over year. The country's oil demand climbed by 12.6% in September from a year earlier.

However, the October demand was just a tad higher than September's 33.8 million mt.

Chinese refineries processed a total of 33.29 million metric tons (7.87 million barrels per day) of crude in October, surpassing the previous all-time high of 33.11 million metric tons set in July.

"Chinese industrial production and retail sales rose by more than 16% on year in October according to official data, but the China growth story continues to be driven by domestic demand rather than a recovery in the country's export markets," said Vandana Hari, Asia news director at Platts. "This raises questions about the shape of its economic recovery after Beijing's stimulus package wears out."

"Among short-term factors, expectations of the government announcing a hike in domestic products prices in late October is said to have spurred stockpiling of fuel, which explains the high refining rates," Hari explained.

China raised both gasoline and gasoil prices by Yuan 480/mt ($70.30/mt) effective November 10 in keeping with a product pricing mechanism in force since the start of 2009, which tracks a basket of international crude prices to keep domestic fuel rates broadly in alignment.

Meanwhile, higher crude throughput at the refineries in October coincided with a 12.3% spike in crude imports during the month compared with September and an 11.6% slide in refined products imports month-on-month. October crude imports of 19.33 million metric tons represented a 19.6% increase from a year ago and were the second highest monthly purchase by China historically.

    MONTHLY TRADE DATA IN MILLION METRIC TONS:                    Oct'09  Oct'08  % Chg  Sep'09  Aug'09  Jul'09  Jun'09 May'09     Net crude      imports       18.97   15.86  +19.6   16.83   17.92   19.20   16.31  16.62      Crude      production    16.26   16.55   -1.8   15.72   16.32   16.14   15.71  16.03      Apparent      demand*       33.89   30.75  +10.2   33.80   33.02   34.92   33.35  33.23  

Platts calculates China's apparent or implied oil demand on the basis of crude throughput volumes at the domestic refineries and net oil product imports, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese customs.

The government releases data on imports, exports, domestic crude production and refinery throughput data, but does not give official data on the country's actual oil consumption figure and oil stockpiles.

Platts releases its monthly calculation of China's apparent demand between the 18th and 26th of every month via press release and via its website. Any use of this information must be appropriately attributed to Platts.

For more information on crude oil, visit the Platts website at www.platts.com.

SOURCE Platts

Thai government strictly follows Map Ta Phut recommendation

The government yesterday decided to withdraw draft amendments to Environment Protection Act that comply with the Constitution's Article 67 (2) as recommended by the four-party panel, which is promising to end the Map Ta Phut controversy within five months.

Former prime minister Anand Panyarachun, who is chairing this panel, has promised to take no more than four or five months to solve the problems, particularly the issues surrounding the 76 suspended industrial projects.

"The committee will not point to who is right or wrong, but will instead focus on find facts and exchanging opinions. The idea is to co-exist and not find winners or losers," Anand said.

Though the panel cannot influence the administrative court's injunction, measures to help the 76 projects are expected to come up within four or five weeks. The panel will also find ways to mitigate the impact of 200 projects that may face environmental lawsuits.

"If the government does not comply with the resolutions proposed by this panel, it must take all the responsibilities on it own," Anand said at the press conference.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday promised that the government would listen more to other peoples' opinions before it takes any legal moves. Before making a move on the 76 projects, the government will also wait for the Supreme Administration Court's ruling on the appeal against the lower court's injunction.

The draft, before it was submitted to the Parliament, had failed to win civil society's approval, especially with regard to the way members of the independent environmental body would be appointed or removed by the Natural Resources and Environment Minister.

Meanwhile the National Health Commission expert Detcharat Sukkhamnerd, a member of the joint committee, insisted that the draft withdrawal would not delay the 76 projects and that the private sector was satisfied by the panel's moves.

Vice chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, Payungsak Chartsutipol, also a member of the panel, said the first meeting at Ban Phitsanulok was peaceful because all parties wanted the same outcome - solving the environmental problems and easing conflicts between industries and local communities. All parties want to ensure that the laws and regulations are applied to all industrial plants nationwide and meet international standards.

"What the private sector is most concerned about is the 76 projects, and the committee has agreed to seek solutions for two scenarios - if the projects are suspended and if they are allowed to continue," he said.

The committee agreed to hold the meeting twice a week and invite environmental law specialists to join. Members would also visit Map Ta Phut on December 5 and 6 to seek more information.

At the next meeting, the committee is set to revise the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry's amendments to the ministerial regulations that would result in environmental impact and health impact assessments.

Anand said the committee was empowered to seek information, including data on illnesses, from relevant agencies regarding Map Ta Phut. Once the resolutions have been completed, the committee will submit them to the government, which will then decide how to proceed.

The former PM has also vowed to revise or improve any government regulations or announcements related to environmental issues for a long-term solution.

Detcharat said the draft should be withdrawn because it was not approved by the civil society. He also said he felt positive toward the panel and believed that it would find the way out for the chronic disputes in the Map Ta Phut area.

Shenhua:over 10% m-o-m fall in Oct. coal sales

Published: 19 Nov 2009 00:32:26 PST

Nov. 18 MetalBiz--Leading Chinese coal producer China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd announced on November 16 that its coal production stayed stable in October, but sales apparently decreased month on month.

Meanwhile, the company's electricity businesses displayed improving performances last month.

In October, Shenhua produced 17.1mln tons of coal, up by 5.6% year on year, but edging down 1.16% than September.

Its coal sales volume reached 21.2mln tons in October, climbing 11.6% than the same period last year but sliding 10.17% from September, including 1.2mln tons for exports, soaring 20% year on year but plunging7.69% month on month.

Last month Shenhua produced 10.13bln kwh of electricity, up by 40.9% over the year earlier period and 2.32%over September. It sold 9.44bln kwh of electricity, surging 66.5% year on year and 2.28% month on month.

Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company Rankings

The past two years have been some of the most momentous in the history of the oil markets. A frantic commodities bubble redefined record oil prices and sent crude oil soaring to over $147 per barrel (/b) in July 2008. Oil products skyrocketed as well, boosted by unprecedented demand from China in the run-up to the Olympics.

The oil price spikes were followed by freefall, caused by the global recession and a demand vacuum. Crude oil futures dipped below $40/b in December 2008 before rebounding from mid-February back up to over $70/b later in the year, despite continuing recession in the OECD countries.

The boom and bust in prices threw the industry under an unfamiliar media spotlight as the hue and cry from wary consumers grew. While the structure of the energy industry has not undergone an overnight sea change, there has been a shift in tone. From integrated oil & gas companies (IOGs) to electric utilities (EUs), there is a deepening commitment to finding and using clean and sustainable alternative sources of energy.

This has impacted many things from intensifying the search for cleaner sources of energy, such as natural gas, to the way in which crude oil is refined. IOGs are increasingly focused on finding natural gas; technology for extracting gas from shale and methane beds has advanced substantially, which is changing the global balance of energy. This is leading to an increased desire to produce LNG to enable its storage and transportation.

Refining and marketing firms, as well as IOGs, are increasing their production of clean diesel. The pressure to utilize clean alternative sources of energy in electricity generation, particularly in Europe, is impacting the physical infrastructure of electricity grids, which were not designed to deal with intermittent and distributed energy sources.

But despite all this and the roller coaster ride that oil prices have taken, IOGs have retained their global dominance. Thanks in part to last year’s $100 plus crude oil, IOGs carved out the top 13 spots in the 2009 Platts Top 250 Energy Company Rankings™, and took 30 of the top 50 places. Platts rankings are based on a combination of assets, revenues, profits and return on capital invested for listed companies with over $2 billion in assets.

Exxon Mobil Corp retained the number one spot for the fifth year running. US, UK, EMEA and Russian IOGs took two each of the ten top spots with China and Brazil sharing the limelight with one each. Latin America is making a better showing in the top 50 this year; the newly-listed Ecopetrol of Colombia, which wasn’t ranked last year, popped in at 30th on 2009’s list.

Colombia’s mostly state-owned oil company listed about 10% interest in its company on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in September 2008, and is planning to use the money raised on doubling its crude oil production. Brazil’s Petrobras made a leap to 6th place (from 12th in 2008), owing to additions to its reserves resulting from its giant pre-salt layer oil finds.

Asian oil and gas companies took eight of the top 50 places, with PetroChina topping the Asian chart and reaching number nine in the overall top 250. CNOOC grabbed the number two spot in Asia, jumping up five places. Otherwise, the top 50 rankings for all energy companies were dominated by firms from Europe and the Middle East, with 25 places overall. The Americas were second with 17, eight of which were from the United States.

Exploration and production (E&P) companies also benefited from outright oil price spikes and good demand earlier in 2008. Canada’s Encana climbed 19 places to number 16 in the top 250 list. China’s CNOOC leapt 13 places to 21st in the overall table. E&P companies were prominent in the top 50 fastest growing list and made up 30% of the fastest growing companies from the Americas, led by Addax Petroleum, which has recently been taken over by China’s Sinopec, and Southwestern Energy.

Oil price moves also meant that 16 oil storage and transportation companies made the top 250 in 2009 vs 13 in 2008, having reaped the benefits of a contango market which lasted a good part of 2008. Owners of oil storage and natural gas pipelines were the main beneficiaries. Waterborne oil shipping sank along with demand in 2008, but perked up again in 2009 as contango led oil companies to utilize floating storage.

Refining takes it on the chin

The picture for the oil & gas industry was not all rosy, however. Refining and marketing firms, having started 2008 with good demand and healthy margins, suffered greatly from the economic downturn as demand dropped and margins shrank. The worldwide recession heralded a compression in refining margins with people driving less and upgrading to more fuel-efficient cars.

Crude oil prices remained relatively high as the appetite for commodities exposure continued, while products including gasoline and heating oil fell.

ConocoPhillips, which is heavily dependent upon refining, saw its revenues fall by 27% for the financial year 2008. ConocoPhillips fell from number 16 in 2008 to 117th in Platts 2009 rankings. Valero suffered a similar fate, falling from 14th to 138th and is closing down refineries in 2009. Sunoco appeared to have a delayed reaction, largely thanks to diesel demand from Asia, coming in at fourth place in the R&M table and 59th overall.

This year, however, Sunoco is also in the process of shutting down refining capacity. Two Indian R&Ms led the table with Reliance Industries in first place (25th overall). Reliance bested its rivals in Asia, owing to its sophisticated refinery system, which optimizes cheaper heavy crude oil. Indian Oil Corp was second (33rd overall) and Japan was third with TonenGeneral Sekiyu (56th overall).

Major majors

The major integrated oil and gas companies did not have a smooth ride on their way to dominating the top 10. All were hit by falling oil prices in last-quarter 2008 and sinking demand throughout first-half 2009. And, in the US, they narrowly averted a massive strike of United Steelworkers early in 2009, who were negotiating a new contract with Royal Dutch Shell.

The strike could have paralyzed over 50% of the US’s refinery capacity. The US grabbed two spots in the top 10, with ExxonMobil in the number one position and Chevron in second place. ExxonMobil made the top of the list for the fifth year in a row, with revenues of $425 billion. The Western major’s 2008 fourth-quarter net income took a 33% blow, owing to the plunge in oil prices, but then still finished the year with record profits.

In 2009, market conditions have remained challenging, causing ExxonMobil’s net income to drop 66% in the second quarter. The firm faced criticism after output fell in 2008 to its lowest level since Mobil was acquired in 1999. The company is now spending billions to find new reserves. ExxonMobil will also spend over $1 billion at two US refineries, as well as one in Belgium to improve its output of clean diesel by 10%. It also saw start-up this year of production from its new giant LNG trains in Qatar.

Сhevron moved into second place in 2009 from fourth place in 2008, having brought on-stream some significant new fields and improved its upstream revenues by about 50%. Chevron started up new projects in the US Gulf of Mexico and Indonesia in 2008, while it nearly doubled production capacity from the giant Tengiz field in Kazakhstan. Third place Royal Dutch Shell’s $458 billion revenues dwarfed even ExxonMobil’s. Voted “Energy Company of the Year” at the 10th annual Platts Global Energy Awards last year, Shell is investing heavily in LNG production as well as carbon capture and storage.

It has also, in 2009, made a major commitment towards Floating LNG, while work progresses in Qatar on what will be the world’s largest Gas-to-Liquids plant. BP moved up one place to fourth position, having finally resolved the battle for control over TNK-BP with partners Alfa-Access-Renova in September 2008. BP has also been sorting out several problems with its US refineries, including Texas City, which suffered a fatal explosion in 2005. BP’s fortunes may, however, be turning after it made a giant oil find in the Gulf of Mexico in September 2009.

PetroChina was the only Asian IOG representative in the top ten. Russians Rosneft and Gazprom came in eighth and ninth, while Italy’s ENI was number ten. Gazprom ranked number two in terms of profitability, second only to ExxonMobil.

The tiger continues to roar

China, Hong Kong and India ruled Asia and the Pacific Rim tables as oil and coal demand continued to grow across the region. The recession dented demand there as well as elsewhere, but China’s seemingly endless thirst returned in the second half of 2009. PetroChina briefly became the world’s largest firm in May 2009 before ExxonMobil edged it out again in October. The firm led the Asian table as refining margins improved; the Chinese government has embarked on a plan to slowly reduce subsidies on oil products, making them more profitable for oil refiners.

PetroChina was followed by E&P giant CNOOC in second place and Indian R&M Reliance industries in third. New to the ranks of the Asian top energy companies by industry catagory were NTPC, India’s largest power company, Tokyo Gas Co., and AGL Energy, an Australian distributed utility. Asia dominated the coal and consumable fuels (C&CF) market with three of the top eight firms coming from China, and one from Indonesia. China Shenhua Energy came in at number one in the industry, with China Coal Energy third and Yanzhou Coal Mining fourth.

Newcomer to the list PT Bumi Resources in Indonesia took sixth place. India is actively trading coal and buying coal mines overseas, but no Indian company has yet made the top ten in the C&CF category. Chinese and Indian demand for coal pushed prices to new heights in 2008, prompting further concern over the countries’ greenhouse gas emissions. In 2009, China and India pledged to substantially reduce emissions, and Shenhua signed an agreement in October to work with Shell to develop clean coal technology.

Asian companies made up more than 20% of the 50 fastest growing companies list, and also took 30% of the top 10 places in the R&M category. Reliance Industries and Indian Oil Corporation were first and second, with TonenGeneral Sekiyu of Japan third.

European utilities bloom

Eight of the top ten electric utilities in Platts 2009 rankings were from Europe. Boosted by the European Commission’s 20-20-20 targets, which mandates that 20% of energy generation comes from renewable sources by 2020, Europe is leading the world in solar, wind and hydro power expansion. Spain, France and Germany are leading the rush to smart grid technology development in EMEA. France’s EDF Energy ranked first in the European leading companies table.

Also ranked number one in terms of assets, EDF has been on a buying spree; it took over UK nuclear provider British Energy in 2008 and Belgian electricity supplier SPE this year. Not to be outdone, Italy’s largest utility, the number two ranked Enel, bought a 25% share in Spain’s Endesa (ranked number 5) earlier this year. Only two US electric utilities made the top ten ranks of the Top 250; Exelon of Illinois, a nuclear and fossil fuel utility, and FPL of Florida, which is investing in large-scale solar plants. In the top 20 for all energy companies, there were only three utilities -- RWE (a multi-utility) and electric utilities EDF and ENEL.

The Europeans were well represented in the top 50, while for the US, only Virginia’s Dominion Resources was ranked, at 50th down 3 places from 2008. Gas utilities climbed the ladder, owing in part to high natural gas prices in first-half 2008. Gas Natural of Spain came in 16 places higher than in 2008 at number 54, with Belgium’s Distrigas a distant 112th (up from 149th in 2008). Consumer complaints have been rife and gas prices have since toppled, which may damage their returns this year even if winter arrives hard and early.

Independent Power Producer AES of Virginia won the top spot among IPPs, coming in at number 72 in the overall rankings, with India’s NTPC second at number 73. A contraction in power demand this year is expected to damage revenues. Among multi-utilities, Germany’s RWE ranked first (Platts rank number 14). France’s GDF Suez, a newcomer to the list after the merger of GDF and Suez in 2008, came in second, and at number 27 in the overall rankings.

2009 newcomers to Platts Top 250 were heavily weighted toward utilities, which comprised 14 of the more than 30 newly-ranked companies. Of the 14, seven were electric utilities and the rest scattered between gas, multi and independent utilities. The industry continues to attract new investment, despite the challenges it faces with “greening up” its generation and carbon cap and trade policies.

Other newcomers fell primarily in the E&P space, with high prices attracting new investment there and in storage & transportation.

Top 20

1. ExxonMobil Corp
2. Chevron Corp
3. Royal Dutch Shell
4. BP
5. Total SA
6. Petrobras Brasileiro
7. Rosneft Oil
8. Gazprom Oao
9. Petrochina Co
10. ENI SpA
11. StatoilHydro
12. LUKOIL
13. TNK-BP
14. RWE AG
15. Occidental Petroleum
16. EnCana Corp
17. BG Group plc
18. Electricite de France
19. Enel SpA
20. Marathon Oil

China holds, mistreats US geologist on secrets charges

By CHARLES HUTZLER (AP) –

BEIJING — Sometime into his long detention by China's feared state security agents, American geologist Xue Feng had something to show U.S. consular officials on their monthly visit. He rolled up his sleeve, revealing the burns where his interrogators pressed lit cigarettes into his arm.

Xue also had something to say: He wanted his previously unpublicized detention made public in hopes that the outcry would win his release.

But Xue did not get his wish. His wife balked, as did the U.S.-based consultancy that employed him until months before he was detained, both saying that going public might hurt rather than help his case. The U.S. Embassy, caught between his desire to go public and his wife's wish for privacy, worked behind-the-scenes for his release.

So two years after disappearing into custody, the University of Chicago-trained Xue (pronounced shway) remains held at an unknown location in Beijing, charged with stealing state secrets over the purchase of a commercial database on the oil industry. His case has been batted inconclusively between prosecutors and the courts, which twice asked for more evidence, according to a summary of the case prepared by Xue's wife and seen by The Associated Press.

On Tuesday, President Barack Obama raised Xue's case at his Beijing summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao, said a White House official on the trip, in the latest and highest-level intervention.

More than an instance of abusive, intransigent Chinese justice, Xue's case raises disturbing questions about the quiet lobbying foreign governments, companies and the families of detainees often use, believing it more effective with an authoritarian Chinese leadership.

"Under difficult and dangerous circumstances, Dr. Xue made it clear that he wanted the American people to learn of his ordeal. I have little doubt that had his wishes been respected, his case would have already been resolved," said John Kamm, a human rights campaigner with a two-decade track record of getting prisoners released and whom the State Department turned to this month for help.

Beijing's State Security Bureau and the Procuratorate, or prosecutor's office, declined comment. A spokesman for the city's No. 1 Intermediate Court, a Mr. Niu, said Xue's trial "is still in mid-process," where, according to the case summary, it has been since July.

Xue's wife, Nan Kang, who was born in China like her husband and who lives with their children outside Houston, Texas, has hired a lawyer. She said she wanted to keep her husband's detention quiet for fear that going public would have repercussions for their parents in China and disturb their two children, especially their young son.

Kang declined to comment further publicly. In the case summary she wrote: "My husband denies the charge against him, and he believes that he was helping China attract inward investment and to improve the Chinese economy."

The U.S. Embassy in Beijing said that it has monitored Xue's case since soon after his arrest, visiting him over 20 times, delivering messages from his family and pressing for his release. It declined to release further details and would only say that Xue asked for his detention to be made public "some time ago."

U.S. governments have for years weighed whether jailed dissidents and American prisoners are better served by public pressure, closed-door diplomacy or a combination of the two. The Obama administration has tried keep any likely disputes over human rights, a perennial irritant in relations, from damaging a broader agenda crowded with the economic crisis, climate change, nuclear proliferation and other global issues.

The AP learned of Xue's case last week. The U.S. Embassy initially requested that publication be withheld, saying it may harm attempts under way to gain his release. But in recent days, the embassy has said it detects no progress on the case. Xue's wife has asked the case not be made public out of concern for her family. Given Xue's wishes to go public and the lack of progress, the AP decided to publish.

"I have been writing letters to members of Congress, the Senate, the Bush administration, the Obama administration, at least two ambassadors in Beijing — Huntsman and Randt — trying hard over time to raise his case and make sure everyone was aware of it," said David Rowley, a geo-sciences professor at the University of Chicago who was Xue's doctorate thesis adviser. "I have tried to be an advocate, but in the wishes of Dr. Xue's wife, I have tried to keep this out of the public eye and tried to deal with this privately."

In pursuing Xue, Chinese agencies ignored their own laws. Authorities did not respond when the U.S. Embassy asked his whereabouts shortly after he disappeared on Nov. 20, 2007, and only three weeks later did consular officials get to see him — far beyond the periods for notification and visits required by China's regulations and its consular agreement with the U.S., said Kamm and legal experts.

Xue's treatment contrasts with that of a similar case, involving a China-born, naturalized Australian executive. The detention in July of Stern Hu, an executive with the global mining giant Rio Tinto who was charged with stealing state secrets — information on iron ore negotiating strategies — brought an angry public reaction from the Australian government. The charges were reduced to bribery and infringing trade secrets, and Australian officials say Hu has not been mistreated.

"Rio Tinto has been cast as a one off: Businesses don't need to worry," said Jerome Cohen, an expert on China's legal system at New York University School of Law who has been consulted about Xue. But "businesses are trying to get information all the time. Obviously they are being watched."

Like Hu, Xue was a highly accomplished professional who returned to China after success abroad. Born near the central city of Xi'an, Xue went to Chicago to get his Ph.D., bringing along his wife. He worked in the geophysical sciences laboratory for most of the 1990s and was seen as driven and meticulous.

"He was a very good student," said Rowley, the thesis adviser. "He worked very hard, was a very dedicated individual and quite careful in his analyses."

Xue earned his degree, studying high-pressure rock formations in northern China's Dabie Mountains. He picked up a green-card residency permit and eventually U.S. citizenship. In March 2001, the prestigious energy consulting firm IHS Energy — now IHS Inc. based in Colorado — hired Xue to be its Northeast Asia manager.

In China, Xue cultivated contacts in a rapidly growing petroleum industry, gathering in-depth, up-to-date information that IHS could provide to clients, mostly foreign energy companies eager to join the boom. At one point, he helped arrange the purchase of a detailed database about the oil industry.

Rowley said the database was developed by another company and was intended for one of China's state-run offshore oil companies. Cohen, the lawyer, said Xue arranged the sale and a contract was signed between the seller who was a person Xue knew and the buyer, IHS.

"On the surface, it looked like a legitimate sale of business information," said Cohen.

Chinese officials have wide powers to classify materials as state secrets, sometimes reclassifying information already in the public domain. Having basic maps still sometimes gets foreigners in trouble. And the government regards its petroleum industry as strategic.

Since Xue's disappearance, he has been held at an undisclosed location and brought to a courthouse for his consular visits. At some point, his jailers beat him, struck him on the head with an ashtray as well as applying the lit cigarettes to his arm. Nearly six months into his detention, the U.S. Embassy received the formal reason given for his arrest. "He is suspected of the crime of gathering intelligence for abroad," read an April 2008 notice from the Foreign Ministry.

IHS denies any connection to Xue's alleged crime, saying that he left the company in January, 10 months before his November disappearance; his wife said it was July. "We have no notification from the Chinese government or any Chinese authorities that IHS is involved," said company spokesman Ed Mattix.

IHS too, Mattix said, was working behind the scenes to free Xue but believes that publicity would hurt the cause.

While efforts on Xue's behalf plodded on, his case was twice heard in a Beijing court in July and a third time this month. No U.S. Embassy officials attended, saying they were told state secrets charges precluded their attendance.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gE6zSxI_SVZeYhKBsZD4BN2K34HAD9C2KH000

Burma to ‘double output’ of gas by 2020

Nov 19, 2009 (DVB)–Burma is to double its output of natural gas in the next 10 years, the country’s sole operator of oil and gas production told a regional trade fair in Bangkok yesterday.

Energy experts believe Burma’s offshore Bay of Bengal gas fields could house Southeast Asia’s largest gas reserves, much of which is now being pumped to neighbouring countries.

The Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE) yesterday told an annual ASEAN Council on Petroleum (ASCOPE) trade fair that the country would seek to significantly boost output over the coming decade.

The regional ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) bloc is comprised of Burma, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

As well as MOGE, the little known Best Luck Co. Ltd was in attendance at ASCOPE, along with a host of international outfits, many of whom have operations or dealings with Burma.

The projected increase in gas output will be largely down to the inception of the Shwe gas pipeline project, being overseen by South Korean company, Daewoo International, as well as the Zawtika pipeline run by Thailand’s PTTEP petroleum company.

The Shwe gas pipeline has come under heavy criticism from both environmental and human rights groups.

Critics view it as the appropriation of the country’s resources by the military, who are then siphoning it to Burma’s energy-hungry neighbours.

“The management system is completely wrong,” said Wong Aung, of the anti-pipeline Shwe Gas Campaign. “They are trying to extract and export everything we have”.

The pipelines are also blamed for destroying livelihoods in fragile tribal communities heavily dependent on the natural ecosystems that construction of the pipeline is believed to be jeopardising.

The biggest criticism however is reserved for the apparent misappropriation by Burma’s military government of the vast funds that can be made from gas revenues.

“It will have no benefit for the Burmese people…these revenues will only heighten the regional security threat posed by the Burmese military regime,” said Wong Aung.

Despite the extraction of gas and oil, the living standards of the average Burmese person has shown little sign of improvement.

The ruling junta was in September accused by advocacy group EarthRights International of stashing the revenue from sales of natural energy in Singaporean banks, and using irregularities between official and unofficial exchange rates to hide income.

Despite such criticisms, the government continues to be accused of channeling some 40 percent of its annual budget into the military, which has seen a massive increase in size and sophistication over the past decade.

There has long been debate about foreign investment in military-ruled Burma, with the fossil fuel industry being the most controversial.

Several western companies, including French company TOTAL and America’s Chevron, have continued operations in the country, despite heavy criticism and pressure from activists that even resulted in a court case brought against Chevron in the 1990’s.

The launch of the trade fair yesterday coincided with a report released by anti-corruption group, Transparency International, which ranked Burma 178 out 180 countries in its annual Corruption Perceptions Index.

More on China’s Faux GDP Data

Back in October, I laughed off the latest China GDP data as utterly fabricated. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

As it turns out, I was not the only one. China expert Gordon G. Chang (author of The Coming Collapse of China) is more than skeptical — he has the data to question much of China’s growth miracle.

Spoiler alert: Its been wildly exaggerated:

“Beijing, in the 1990s, ordered factories to churn out goods in periods of low demand, and there are indications that officials are resorting to this tactic now. While optimistic analysts point to astounding car sales–up 70.5% in July, 94.7% in August and 83.6% in September–there are reports that central government officials have ordered state enterprises to buy fleets of vehicles and that these businesses are storing them in parking lots across the country. These stories are as yet unconfirmed, but they are consistent with statistics showing that gasoline sales have been flat this year–up only 6.4% in August, for instance, and sliding since then from all indications. So here’s another question: At a time when economic activity is supposedly rising at a quick pace,how can large increases in passenger vehicle sales not be accompanied by corresponding surges in fuel usage? (emhasis added)

The answer is that Beijing’s statisticians have gone back to their old tactic of making up figures to support the Politburo’s predictions. The Chinese economy is probably growing due to state-led investment, but it cannot be doing so at the rates claimed. Wen Jiabao’s stimulus plan is, above all, grossly inefficient. For all the money he is pouring into the economy, the country is getting a small return in economic output. That’s why Premier Wen, despite the high growth numbers he’s been reporting, consistently refuses to end his stimulus program. If his numbers were real, he would be worried about overheating. But he’s apparently not.”

Gee, whoever would have guessed that a Totalitarian government would lie in its official data?

>
Previously:
Who Believes China’s ‘Bernie Madoff’ Data? (October 22nd, 2009)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/who-believes-chinas-bernie-madoff-data/

Source:
China’s 8.9% Growth? No Way
Gordon G. Chang
Forbes, 10.23.09
http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/22/china-growth-gdp-economy-opinions-columnists-gordon-g-chang.html

Thailand's PTT group suspends merger plans

Group awaits outcome of Map Ta Phut case

A planned merger of four PTT Group petrochemical and refining units has been delayed pending a court settlement on the ongoing Map Ta Phut dispute, a senior executive says.

The merger has been delayed until the court outlines clear environmental enforcement guidelines for 76 suspended industrial projects, worth about 400 billion baht, in Rayong's Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate, said Prajya Phinyawat, chief operating officer of PTT's downstream petroleum business group.

Of the 76 suspended projects, 25 ventures, worth about 130 billion baht in total, belong to PTT and its affiliates.

PTT has been studying the possible merger of PTT Chemical Plc (PTTCH), IRPC Plc, PTT Aromatics and Aromatics and Refining Plc (PTTAR) and Thai Oil Plc (TOP). The plan, which was originally to be finalised in October, was pushed back to the year-end. But Mr Prajya said the merger would now not be concluded until the court sets clear compliance guidelines for the projects.

"How can we decide which formula is most suitable for the merger until we know what is going to happen with their operations [once the verdict is made]?" he said yesterday. "The merger will proceed immediately after we know what we have to do to comply with the court's order."

PTTCH, meanwhile, has been in talks to acquire petrochemical projects in neighbouring countries, said president and CEO Veerasak Kositpaisal.

Negotiations with petrochemical manufacturers in Southeast Asia are expected to conclude next year.

The company has the capacity to raise up to 60 billion baht in funds to finance investments over the next five years, he said.

Asean will integrate into a single production base by eliminating tariffs on petrochemical products traded within the region next year.

Asean market integration will pave the way for better access for PTTCH products to markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Mr Veerasak said acquiring existing assets in Asean was appropriate for PTTCH to integrate its operations as key petrochemical products are expected to swell when new capacity, mainly from the Middle East and China, come online starting next year.

At the same time, PTTCH has prepared a contingency plan in case PTT's sixth gas-separation plant - one of the suspended projects in Map Ta Phut - has to be delayed beyond its scheduled operational target of the first quarter next year.

The $780-million gas-separation plant is considered vital to the operation of PTTCH's cracker plant which is targeted to start commissioning in late December, he said.

PTT's chief financial officer Tevin Vongvanich said if, in the worst case, the sixth gas plant cannot proceed, 300 million cubic feet per day of local supply will evaporate, forcing Thailand to import more liquefied petroleum gas.

PTT projects crude oil price to move in a range of $65 to $75 per barrel in the final quarter, with Dubai crude now trading above $70, he said.

The gross refining margin is expected to edge down from $1.70 a barrel in the third quarter while petrochemical prices will also weaken.

"Fortunately, the spread margin has declined less than we anticipated while the demand has improved in line with the global economy," he said.

Consequently, PTT is likely to report better-than-expected profit this year, possibly higher than the 51.7 billion baht posted in 2008, but total revenue will fall below last year's 2 trillion baht.

Shares of PTT closed yesterday on the Stock Exchange of Thailand at 233 baht, down six baht, in trade worth 1.03 billion baht. PTTCH declined 1.25 baht to 70.75, in turnover worth 206.4 million baht.